Rising Air-Conditioning Use Intensifies Global Warming

This study quantifies the warming impact of rising air-conditioning use across multiple climate and socio-economic scenarios using an integrated modeling framework.

• •Global cooling demand (Cooling Degree Days) is projected to rise 25% by 2050 and 50% by 2100 under the baseline SSP245 scenario, relative to 2010
• •An integrated framework combining improved CDD approach, GCAM energy model, and MAGICC climate emulator was used to project AC energy consumption and GHG emissions
• •Both electricity consumption for cooling and refrigerant leakage (HFCs, CFCs, HCFCs) contribute to additional warming
• •Under high-emission scenarios (SSP370, SSP585), cooling demand by 2100 is projected to be 48-66% higher than in 2010
• •Income-driven inequalities in AC access are quantified using Lorenz curves and Gini coefficients across regions and income levels